sábado, 22 de marzo de 2008

Lo que esperaba Arthur C. Clarke para el siglo XXI

Hace unos días falleció el visionario Arthur C. Clarke, co-autor de 2001 y de otras tantas obras de ciencia ficción. En 2001 recuerdo haber leido un artículo donde exponía su visión de lo que nos esperaba para el siglo XXI. Me parece oportuno recuperar esas reflexiones para tenerlas presentes, pues una de las que más recuerdo es que la próxima unidad de cambio será el Megawatt/hora, y me parece que la tendencia es a volvernos productores de energía limpia.

2001 - Cassini spaceprobe (launched October 1997; arrived Saturn July 2000) begins exploration of the planet's moons and rings.

Galileo probe (launched October 1989) continues surveying Jupiter and its moons.

Life beneath the ice-covered oceans of Europa appears increasingly likely.

2002 - The first commercial device producing clean, safe power by low-temperature nuclear reactions goes on the market, heralding the end of the fossil-fuel age. Economic and geopolitical earthquakes follow.

2003 - The motor industry is given five years to replace all fuel-burning engines with the new energy device.

NASA's robot Mars Surveyor (carrying Lander and Rover) is launched.
2004 - First publicly admitted human clone.

2005 - First sample launched back to Earth by Mars Surveyor.

2006 - Last coal mine closed.

2007 - NASA Next Space Telescope (successor to the Hubble) launched.

2008 - To mark what would have been his 80th birthday, on July 26, film director Stanley Kubrick, who made 2001: A Space Odyssey, is posthumously awarded a special Oscar for Lifetime Achievement.

2009 - A city in a third world country is devastated by the accidental explosion of an A-bomb in its armoury. After a brief debate in the UN, all nuclear weapons are destroyed.

2010 - The first quantum generators (tapping space energy) are developed. Available in portable and household units from a few kilowatts upwards, they can produce electricity indefinitely. Central power stations close down; the age of pylons ends as grid systems are dismantled. Electronic monitoring virtually removes professional criminals from society.

2011 - Largest living creature filmed: a 75-metre octopus in the Mariana Trench.

By a curious coincidence, later that year even larger marine creatures are discovered when the first robot probes drill through the ice of Europa and an entire new biota is revealed.

2012 - Aerospace-planes enter service.

2013 - Despite the understandable apprehensions of Buckingham Palace, Prince Harry becomes the first member of the Royal Family to fly in space.

2014 - Construction of Hilton Orbiter Hotel begins, by assembling and converting the giant shuttle tanks which had previously been allowed to fall back to Earth.

2015 - An inevitable by-product of the quantum generator is the complete control of matter at the atomic level. Thus the old dream of alchemy is realised on a commercial scale, often with surprising results. Within a few years, since they are more useful, lead and copper cost twice as much as gold.

2016 - All existing currencies are abolished. The megawatt-hour becomes the unit of exchange.

2017 - December 16. On his 100th birthday, Sir Arthur C Clarke is one of the first guests of the Hilton Orbiter

2018 - A major meteor impact occurs on the North Polar icecap. There is no loss of life, but the resulting tsunamis cause major damage along the coasts of Greenland and Canada. The long-discussed "Project Spaceguard", to identify and deflect any potentially dangerous comets or asteroids, is activated.

2020 - Artificial intelligence (AI) reaches the human level. From now outwards there are two intelligent species on Earth, one evolving far more rapidly than biology would ever permit. Interstellar probes carrying AIs are launched towards the nearer stars.

2021 - Humans land on Mars - and have some unpleasant surprises.

2023 - Dinosaur facsimiles are cloned from computer-generated DNA. Disney's "Triassic Zoo" opens in Florida. Despite some unfortunate initial accidents, mini-raptors start replacing guard dogs.

2024 - Infra-red signals are detected coming from the centre of the galaxy. They are the product of a technologically advanced civilisation but attempts to decipher them fail.

2025 - Neurological research leads to an understanding of all the senses and direct inputs become possible, by-passing eyes, ears, etc. The result is the metal "braincap" of which the 20th century's Walkman was a primitive precursor. Anyone wearing this helmet, fitting tightly over the skull, can enter a whole universe of experience, real or imaginary - and even merge in real-time with other minds.

2040 - The "Universal Replicator", based on nano-technology, is perfected: any object, however complex, can be created - given the raw material and the appropriate information matrix. Diamonds or gourmet meals can be made from dirt. As a result, agriculture and industry are phased out, ending that recent invention in human history - work! There is an explosion in arts, entertainment and education. Hunter-gathering societies are deliberately recreated; huge areas of the planet, no longer needed for food production, are allowed to revert to their original state.

2045 - The totally self-contained, recycling, mobile home (envisaged almost a century earlier by Buckminster Fuller) is perfected. Any additional carbon needed for food synthesis is obtained by extracting carbon dioxide from the atmosphere.

2050 - "Escape from Utopia". Bored by life in this peaceful and unexciting era, millions decide to use cryonic suspension to emigrate into the future in search of adventure. Vast "hibernacula" are established in the Antarctic and in the regions of perpetual night at the lunar poles.

2057 - October 4. Centennial of Sputnik 1. The dawn of the space age is celebrated by humans not only on Earth, but on the Moon, Mars, Europa, Ganymede and Titan - and in orbit round Venus, Neptune and Pluto.

2061 - The return of Halley's Comet; first landing on nucleus by humans. The sensational discovery of both dormant and active life-forms vindicates Hoyle and Wickramasinghe's century-old hypothesis that life is omnipresent throughout space.

2090 - Large-scale burning of fossil fuels is resumed to replace the carbon dioxide "mined" from the air and, hopefully, to postpone the next ice age by promoting global warming.

2095 - "The development of a true "space drive" - a propulsion system reacting against the structure of space-time - makes the rocket obsolete and permits velocities close to that of light. The first human explorers set off to nearby star systems that robot probes have already found promising.

2100 - History begins . . .

(c) Arthur C. Clarke 1999


Arthur C. Clarke Offers His Vision of the Future
by Sir Arthur C. Clarke, Ray Kurzweil


Predictions for the 21st Century by Arthur C. Clarke